By John Slovensky and Eli Hendler

Election Results

The 2014 midterm elections were a resounding victory for the Republican Party. The GOP gained seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The GOP also had a net gain of two governors elected in these elections, which brings the total number of Republican governors to 31. The Republicans could be at a historic majority in the House, having gained at least 12 seats, if they win some of the remaining undecided elections. The GOP fared the best in winning the US Senate, with Georgia’s David Perdue claiming a seat for the Republicans. The Republicans gained a total of 8 seats in the Senate, which could become nine if Rep. Bill Cassidy wins his runoff election against Sen. Mary Landrieu.

The Democrats fared poorly in the local elections; they control the lowest amount of state legislature seats since 1861. and even lost the governorship in Massachusetts, one of the most left leaning states in the country.

This widespread Republican victory was reflected in Georgia, where Republicans held both the governorship and the senatorial seat. Both races were heavily contested; Democrats sought to flip both positions. While the polls showed close races till the end; the Republican candidates were victorious in both battles. Incumbent Republican Governor Deal defeated State Senator Carter 52.8 percent to 44.8 percent in the gubernatorial race. Republican businessman David Perdue defeated Democratic non-profit CEO Michelle Nunn 53.0 percent to 45.1 percent. The Georgia Republicans won on local levels as well. The GOP picked up two seats in the state house and held a more than two-thirds majority of the state senate.

Factors

The widespread Democratic defeat likely comes from dissatisfaction with the direction the country and state has gone in the previous term. While the Republicans controlled the U.S. House, the Democrats controlled both the Senate and the presidency, making them the most easy to blame. President Obama’s approval rate in Georgia is low, at about 41 percent. Because Michelle Nunn is also a Democrat, Perdue was able to connect her to President Obama which hurt her election chances.

Another factor in the Democrats’ defeat is the demographics of the election. Midterm elections typically have fewer young adults and minorities, who tend to vote Democratic. In fact, Perdue received 74 percent of the white vote, while Nunn only received 23 percent. If more black voters turned out, Nunn may have had a better shot at winning. Nunn received 92 percent of the black vote. However, only 29 percent of the electorate was black, so Michelle Nunn was unable to capitalize on the African American vote.

Historic Results

Looking back into the past, this trend of the republican sweep in Georgia is very unusual. Since its creation in 1775, Georgia has had only four republican governors. Two of these governors held office right after the civil war and combined, they didn’t complete a full term.  They had been preceded by nine almost consecutive democratic governors and they were followed by 38 consecutive democratic governors. In fact, the trend of republican victories for the governorship began in 2003 and has only consisted of two governors, Sonny Perdue (held office from 2003-2011) and Nathan Deal (held office from 2011-present). U.S. senators have followed about the same trend as the governors with a few more republicans in recent years. Although there have been more republican senators in the past, Senator Elect David Perdue will be the first republican senator to hold office immediately after another republican.

Outlook for the future

In the 1960s, the southern states, including Georgia, began to shift from their solid allegiance to the Democratic Party to almost absolute support of the republicans. In the most recent election, with the last white democrat being voted out of a state office, it seems that the shift is complete. The Republican Party has been able to win seats in Georgia recently due to their sweep of the white vote, consistently winning around 70 percent of it. Democrats, conversely, have kept relatively close in the races by winning a significant majority of the minority vote winning up to 80 percent of the black vote and a majority of the Hispanic vote. Of the southern states, democrats have worked hard to make Georgia one of the more contested states. With the rapidly growing minority population of Georgia, their uphill battle may be getting easier. The growing minority vote is a factor especial in presidential races which historically have high minority turnout. The thing that makes these elections different then state offices is voter turnout. For the presidential election of 2012, the democrats were able to win 48 percent of the popular vote; however, in the recent elections, they only won about 43 percent. This difference is caused by the jump in voter turnout, especially from minority voters, that can be seen in presidential election years. The first step to the democratic victory, which they pushed very hard this election cycle, would be to increase the voter turnout of minority voters in particular. If they successfully do this in non-presidential years, the rest may follow.